عنوان مقاله :
طراحي سيستم پشتيباني تصميم مدل محور براي يكپارچه سازي ارزيابي عملكرد پروژه و مديريت ريسك(پروژه هاي سرمايه گذاري ساخت)
عنوان به زبان ديگر :
DEVELOPING A MODEL-BASED DSS FOR INTEGRATING PROJECT PERFORMANCE EVALUATION AND RISK MANAGEMENT (CONSTRUCTION INVESTMENT PROJECT
پديد آورندگان :
سيفي ساري قيه، مهدي , چهارسوقي، كمال دانشگاه تربيت مدرس - دانشكده فني و مهندسي , حسين زاده كاشان، علي
كليدواژه :
ارزيابي عملكرد , آناليز ريسك , مديريت مالي , سيستم پشتيباني تصميم , پروژه هاي سرمايه گذاري ساخت
چكيده فارسي :
امروزه فضاي پيچيده و پرابهام صنعت ساخت، عوامل فعال را ناگزير به بهره گيري از ابزارهاي نوين مديريت پروژه و دانش روز دنيا مي كند. اين عوامل به دليل گستره ي پهناور اين دانش، بيشتر بر حوزه هاي كليدي گريزناپذير متمركزند كه اين خود ضامن موفقيت هاي بيشتر خواهد بود. با هدف پاسخ گويي به نيازهاي مذكور، مدل يكپارچه يي از ارزيابي عملكرد و آناليز ريسك، در قالب يك سيستم پشتيباني تصميم مدل محور و با هدف افزايش دقت، سهولت، كارايي و اثربخشي در هر دو مرحله ي برنامه ريزي و اجراي پروژه توسعه داده شده است. مدل پيشنهادي براي اهداف عملكردي پروژه (شامل: زمان، هزينه و...) متناسب با پروژه هاي مورد بررسي براي يكپارچه سازي ارزيابي عملكرد و مديريت ريسك، با توسعه ي شاخص هاي مالي و تلفيق روش مديريت ارزش كسب شده است. روش پيش بيني فيلتر كالمن ارائه شده در مرحله ي اجرايي پروژه، براي پيگيري روند پيشرفت، تحليل
چكيده لاتين :
Today, the construction industry is complex and ambiguous, and the active agents are forced to use the new tools of project management and knowledge of the world to focus on key areas which will enhance them inevitably and thus success is guaranteed. One of the main areas to focus on is the context of project management issue, in this way the performance management is optimized and operational performance is improved to support the risk management and reach the strategies of the organization. With the science development, the optimization of possibility of projects and implementation process, is a critical step in the process of completing the project.According to studies, about 60% of the failure of construction companies, has been due to financial matters. According to the literature, to meet the demands, deficiencies in risk management and financial management of the project were discussed to evaluate the performance. In this research, the evaluation of project performance and risk management is integrated and evaluated. Therefore, a comprehensive model for integrated performance evaluation models and risk analyses, using a model-based decision support system, was considered that aims to increase accuracy, convenience, efficiency and effectiveness in both the planning and implementation of project. A decision support system (DSS) is a model-based or knowledge-based system intended to support managerial decision making in semi-structured or unstructured situations.The proposed model for project performance targets, contain: time, cost and finance. The model fits with the discussed projects to integrate performance evaluation with risk analysis, by developing earned value management approach with financial measures. Integration with Kalman filter prediction method is proposed. And thus the model can be used in the project, for progress tracking, risk analysis, and predictions for the future of performance targets. Acomprehensive model presented for an actual project implementation is describedand its results will be compared with the standard methods of project managment.
عنوان نشريه :
مهندسي صنايع و مديريت شريف
عنوان نشريه :
مهندسي صنايع و مديريت شريف
