تعيين سطح بهينه‌ي بخش دفاعي در ايران از منظر اقتصادي

The Determination of the Optimal Level of Defense Sector in Iran from Economic Perspective

مخارج دفاعي، سهم عمده‌اي از كل مخارج عمومي را در ايران تشكيل مي‌دهد. بنابراين تعيين سطح بهينه‌ي مخارج دفاعي مي‌تواند نقش مهمي در تخصيص بهينه امكانات مالي بخش عمومي و در نتيجه رشد اقتصادي كشور داشته باشد.در اين راستا، هدف اصلي اين مطالعه، بررسي اثرگذاري غيرخطي مخارج دفاعي بر روي رشد اقتصادي و تعيين سطح بهينه‌ي آن در ايران، طي سال‌هاي 1391-1338 است. به اين منظور از الگوي رگرسيون انتقال ملايم لاجستيك (LSTR) استفاده شده است. نتايج حاصل از برآورد الگوي LSTR، ضمن تأييد تأثير غيرخطي مخارج دفاعي بر روي رشد اقتصادي، نشان داد كه سهم مخارج دفاعي از توليد ناخالص داخلي در قالب يك ساختار دو رژيمي با مقدار آستانه‌اي و بهينه 21 درصد، بر روي درآمد سرانه اثر گذاشته است؛ به‌گونه‌اي كه سهم مخارج دفاعي از توليد ناخالص داخلي در رژيم اول، بر درآمد سرانه در ايران تأثير مثبت داشته، درحالي‌كه در رژيم دوم اين اثر منفي است. لذا فرضيه اثرگذاري مخارج دفاعي بر روي رشد اقتصادي به شكل U معكوس، در ايران تأييد مي‌شود

Defense expenditure is identified as a major part of total public expenditure in Iran. Therefore, determining the optimal level of defense expenditure plays an important role in the efficient allocation of financial resources in the public sectors which could lead to the national economic growth. For this purpose, this study was an attempt to investigate the non-linear effect of defense expenditure on economic growth and is also aimed to determine the optimal level of defense sector in Iran between the years of 1959 and 2012. To address this issue, the study was conducted through running a logistic smooth transition regression model (LSTR). The findings of this model revealed that defense expenditure are non-linearly affecting the economic growth. Moreover, the place of defense expenditure in gross domestic production was emerged in terms of two main components including infrastructures which effectively affecting the average income per capita with the optimal level of 21%. Additionally, in terms of defense expenditure place in GDP, the first factor has received the positive effect while the second factor has suffered the negative effect. Finally, the hypothesis of an inverse U-shaped effect of defense expenditure on economic growth was confirmed in this study.