برآورد تابع مصرف بخش خصوصي با رويكرد اقتصاد اسلامي

Estimation of private sector consumption function in Iran with Islamic economics approach

در اﻳﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺼﺮف ﺑﺨﺶ ﺧﺼﻮﺻﻲ در اﻳﺮان ﺑﺎ روﻳﻜﺮد اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﺳﻼﻣﻲ ﺑـﺎ اﺳـﺘﻔﺎده از روش آزﻣﻮن ﻫﻤﮕﺮاﻳـﻲ ﺑﺎﻧـﺪ ﻣﺒﺘﻨـﻲ ﺑـﺮ ﻣـﺪل ﺗﺼـﺤﻴﺢ ﺧﻄـﺎي ﻧﺎﻣﻘﻴـﺪ(UECM) ﻃـﻲ دورة زﻣـﺎﻧﻲ 1396−1363 ﺑﺮآورد ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. در ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ زده ﺷﺪه، ﻣﺨﺎرج ﻣﺼـﺮف ﺑﺨـﺶ ﺧﺼﻮﺻـﻲ در اﻳﺮان، ﺗﺎﺑﻌﻲ از ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ داﺧﻠﻲ ﻏﻴﺮﻧﻔﺘﻲ، ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺬﻫﺒﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﻮار ﺑﻪ ﻛﻞ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﻫـﺎي ﺧﺎﻧﻮار ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﺷﺎﺧﺼﻲ از اﻳﻤﺎن اﻓﺮاد، ﺗـﻮرم و ﻧـﺮخ ﺳـﻮد ﺳـﭙﺮده ﻫـﺎي ﺑـﺎﻧﻜﻲ ﺑـﻪ ﻋﻨـﻮان ﺳـﻬﻢ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎن وﺟﻮه در ﺑﺎزار ﻣﺸﺎرﻛﺖ در ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ اﻳﻦ ﺑﺮآورد ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﻲ دﻫﺪ ﻳﻚ درﺻﺪ اﻓـﺰاﻳﺶ در ﺗﻮﻟﻴـﺪ ﻧﺎﺧـﺎ ﻟﺺ داﺧﻠـﻲ ﻏﻴﺮﻧﻔﺘـﻲ، ﻣﺨـﺎرج ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺧﺼﻮﺻﻲ را ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰان 1/01درﺻﺪ اﻓﺰاﻳﺶ ﻣﻲ دﻫﺪ و ﺑﺎ ﻳﻚ درﺻﺪ اﻓـﺰاﻳﺶ در ﻧـﺮخ ﺗﻮرم، ﻣﺨﺎرج ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺧﺼﻮﺻﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰان 0/64درﺻﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ. ﺑﺎ ﻳﻚ درﺻﺪ اﻓـﺰاﻳﺶ در ﺷﺎﺧﺺ اﻳﻤﺎن اﻓﺮاد، ﻣﻴﺰان ﻣﺼﺮف ﺑﺨﺶ ﺧﺼﻮﺻﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰان 0/16درﺻﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ. ﻧﺘـ ﺎﻳﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن از آن اﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ اﻓﺰاﻳﺶ اﻳﻤﺎن اﻓﺮاد، از ﻣﻴﺰان ﻣﺼـﺮف آﻧـﺎن ﻛﺎﺳـﺘﻪ ﺧﻮاﻫـﺪ ﺷـﺪ. در اﻳـﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻧﺮخ ﺳﻮد ﺳﭙﺮده ﻫﺎي ﺑـﺎﻧﻜﻲ ﻣـﺪت دار ﺑـﻪ ﻋﻨـﻮان ﺳـﻬﻢ ﻋﺮﺿـﻪ ﻛﻨﻨـﺪﮔﺎن وﺟـﻮه در ﺑـﺎزار ﻣﺸﺎرﻛﺖ، ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻣﻌﻨﺎداري ﺑﺮ ﻣﻴﺰان ﻣﺼﺮف اﻓﺮاد ﻧﺪاﺷﺖ.

In this study, the estimation of the private sector consumption function in Iran with the Islamic economics approach was evaluated using the Uncorrected Error Correction Model (UECM) band based convergence test (Boys, Shane & Smith, 2001) during the period of 1984-2017. Has been. In the estimated function, the consumption expenditure of the private sector in Iran, a function of non-oil GDP, the ratio of household religious expenditure to total household expenses as an indicator of people's faith, inflation and interest rates on bank deposits as a share of funds suppliers Participatory market is considered. The results of this estimate indicate that with a one-percent increase in non-oil GDP, private sector spending will increase by 1.01 percent, and with a one-percent increase in inflation, private sector spending will decrease by 0.63 percent. . With a one-percent increase in the people's faith index, private sector consumption is down 0.15 percent. The results indicate that increasing their faith will reduce their consumption. In this study, the interest rate on long-term bank deposits as a share of fund providers in the participation market did not have a significant effect on the consumption of individuals.