چكيده لاتين :
1. Introduction
Today, tourism has become one of the most rapidly growing industries in the world
that plays an influential role in sustainable development. Rural areas have always
been in the center of sustainable development. Planners in this field also seek a
secure framework to develop the tourism industry in different rural regions and
gain a correct understanding of futuristic and effective strategies in line with the
growth of the industry. One of the ways to identify and evaluate the status of
tourism is the use of foresight approach. For many years, tourism development
planning in Iran has been devoid of such futuristic analyses. In the majority of
studies, rural tourism fields have been regarded as unsustainable areas with weak
economy and a lack of specific policymaking. Accordingly, there are major
challenges with respect to the rural environment, economy, and community;
challenges that can also be traced in processes of planning and implementation
present in Khorasan Razavi planning records. Having more than 57 tourist
destination rural areas in different regions, this province has a special potential to
raise incomes generated from this field. Subsequently, the present study was
conducted on Dizbad tourist destination village located in the Eastern Zebarkhan
section of Khorasan Razavi province to provide answers to the following question:
What are the key propellants affecting rural tourism development in Dizbad?
2. Review of Literature
Rural tourism and its development process refers to any event or process through
which a considerable population from surrounding areas or outside the region
would relocate and move to observe and enjoy historical, cultural, economic, and
untouched natural attractions, while their presences can generate a suitable amount
of income for locals and residents. The importance of this industry in rural areas
are very significant, to the extent to which the decline in traditional rural industries such as agriculture, mining, and forestry during the past three decades have led
rural communities to seek alternatives so as to strengthen their own economic
bases. One alternative in this respect is tourism (Sajjadi and Ahmadi, 2013).
Kadiver (2017) identified 59 rural fields with tourism capabilities in Khorasan
Razavi in the form of tourism products and demand markets using MS-SWOT. He
concluded that the investigated rural areas involve maximum attractions and at the
same time, maximum structural deficiencies which required modifying invasive
strategies in this context for their mitigation.
In another study titled, Karami Dehkordi, Mirakzadeh, and Ghiyasvand Ghiyasi
(2015) showed that seven factors including governmental planning, participation,
culture and society, economy, health and environment, security, and promotion and
utility explain 72.04% of the variance in effective factors on tourism development
in the province.
3. Method
The present, descriptive-analytical study was conducted using documents-library
studies, field observations, questionnaires designed under the Delphi model, and
cross impact analysis matrix in MicMac foresight software. To this end, 20
individuals were selected among the scientific and executive experts who had
sufficient knowledge on the subject of the study and the tourist area of Dizbad Olya
as the sample population using non-random purposive sampling. In the first step,
studies conducted in this area were used to collect variables. Next, 20
questionnaires were distributed among the sample population who were asked to
rate variables from a score of 0 to 3 based on their effectiveness under the cross
impact analysis matrix (a 20x20 matrix was drawn in this regard). In this rating
system, scores of 0, 1, 2, and 3 respectively showed “no impact”, “low impact”,
“average impact”, and “high impact”. The letter “P” was used to denote potentially
direct and indirect effectiveness. Then, ratings were placed inside the cross matrix.
The MicMac software was used to evaluate the effectiveness (direct and indirect)
of each variable and their subordinate variables with other factors; ultimately, the
required output charts were obtained by specifying the key propellant forces.
4. Results and Discussion
According to the results of analyses, the highest direct effectiveness on examined
variables in the study belonged to indices including the L5 index (the commitment
of responsible institutions to their legitimate duties in the area of rural tourism and
refraining from administrative bureaucracy) with a final score of 50 and L3 (lack of
enforcement of the present law and selective treatment of development rules and
policies), L4 (lack of belief in innovations in policies and regulations related to
rural tourism), C2 (limited investment from the public sector and the private
sector’s unwillingness due to the undesirable profitability of this sector), and C5
(unwelcoming reception of tourists by local residents) factors, each with a score of
48. Furthermore, following the calculation of the probability of variables’
dislocation across the tourism development system within the target rural area,
indices including L5, L3, L4, C4, and C5 (the commitment of responsible
institutions to their legitimate duties in the area of rural tourism and refraining from administrative bureaucracy, lack of enforcement of the present law and selective
treatment of development rules and policies, weak transportation and parking
infrastructure, and unwelcoming reception of visiting tourists by local residents)
were found to be the first five priorities in the extent of direct effectiveness at the
state of dislocation.
5. Conclusion
An examination of variable distribution in analyzing the direct and indirect effectdependence along with an explanation of key propellants showed that the tourism system in the area is unsustainable and parameters are unsuitably distributed.Accordingly, the following recommendations can be presented:
Correcting and enhancing the promotion approach to attract tourists in the
area;
Providing infrastructure for accommodation, reception and parking to
improve and develop tourism;
Increasing public and private investments in rural tourism;
Editing legal upper documents of rural tourism development in Khorasan
Razavi province.
