بررسي مخاطرات دما در استان كرمانشاه با تأكيد بر يخبندان و امواج سرمايي

Investigating the Temperature Hazards in Kermanshah Province with Emphasis on Frost and Cold Waves

ﻫﺪف از اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎي ﺣﺪي دﻣﺎ در اﺳﺘﺎن ﮐﺮﻣﺎﻧﺸﺎه اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮاي اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻈـﻮر ، از داده ﻫـﺎي روزاﻧـ ﮥ دﻣﺎي 19 اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﺳﯿﻨﻮﭘﺘﯿﮑﯽ از ﺑﺪو ﺗﺄﺳﯿﺲ ﺗﺎ 2018 و ﻧﻤﺎﯾﻪ ﻫﺎي ﺣﺪي دﻣﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه اﺳـ ﺖ. ﺑـﺎ ﺑﺮرﺳـﯽ ﻫـﺎي اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪه، ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﺪ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎي ﯾﺨﺒﻨﺪان و اﻣﻮاج ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﯽ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﯽ را ﺑﺎ ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎ دارﻧـﺪ. از اﯾﻦ رو، ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎي ﯾﺎدﺷﺪه ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎي ﻧﻤﺎﯾﻨﺪه درﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷـﺪ و ﺑﺮرﺳـﯽ روﻧـﺪ و ﻧﯿـﺰ اﻟﮕـﻮي ﺧﻮدﻫﻤﺒﺴـﺘﮕﯽ ﻓﻀﺎﯾﯽ ﺑﺮاي اﯾﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻫﺎ اﻧﺠﺎم ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. ﺑﺮاي ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ روﻧﺪ از روش ﻣـﻦ ﮐﻨـﺪال و ﺑـﺮاي اﻟﮕـﻮي ﺧﻮدﻫﻤﺒﺴـﺘﮕﯽ ﻓﻀﺎﯾﯽ از ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻓﻀﺎﯾﯽ *G ﺑﻬﺮه ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸـﺎن داد ﺷـﺎﺧﺺ ﯾﺨﺒﻨـﺪان در ﻧـﻮاﺣﯽ ﻣﺮﺗﻔـﻊ ﺷـﺮﻗﯽ در ﺗﺪاوم ﻫﺎي 1 ﺗﺎ 6 روزه ﻓﺮاواﻧﯽ ﺑﯿﺸﯿﻨﻪ داﺷﺘﻪ و در ﻧﻮاﺣﯽ ﮐﻢ ارﺗﻔﺎع ﺟﻨﻮب ﻏﺮﺑﯽ روﻧﺪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺸﯽ دارد. ﺷﺎﺧﺺ اﻣـﻮاج ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﯽ ﻧﯿﺰ در ﻧﻮاﺣﯽ ﺷﺮﻗﯽ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﻓﺮاواﻧﯽ را در ﻫﻤﮥ ﺗﺪاوم ﻫﺎ داﺷﺘﻪ و در ﻗﺴﻤﺖ ﻫﺎﯾﯽ از اﺳﺘﺎن روﻧﺪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺸـﯽ را ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽ دﻫﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اﻟﮕﻮي ﺧﻮدﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﯽ ﻓﻀﺎﯾﯽ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ *G ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ اﻟﮕﻮي ﺧﻮدﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﯽ ﻓﻀـﺎﯾﯽ ﻣﺜﺒـﺖ اﻣﻮاج ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﯽ و ﯾﺨﺒﻨﺪان ﻧﯿﺰ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ در ﻧﻮاﺣﯽ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﺷﺮﻗﯽ اﺳﺘﺎن ﻣﺸـﺎﻫﺪه ﺷـﺪه اﺳـ ﺖ. اﻟﮕـﻮي ﺧﻮدﻫﻤﺒﺴـﺘﮕﯽ ﻓﻀﺎﯾﯽ ﻣﻨﻔﯽ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ در ﻧﯿﻤﮥ ﻏﺮﺑﯽ اﺳﺘﺎن ﯾﻌﻨﯽ ﻧﻮاﺣﯽ ﻣﺮزي ﻋﺮاق ﺗﺸﮑﯿﻞ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ اﯾﻦ اﻣﺮ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ ﻧﻘﺶ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ارﺗﻔﺎﻋﺎت زاﮔﺮس در ﺗﺸﮑﯿﻞ اﻟﮕﻮي ﺧﻮدﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﯽ ﻓﻀﺎﯾﯽ ﯾﺨﺒﻨﺪان در ﺳﻄﺢ اﺳﺘﺎن اﺳﺖ.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the temperature limit indices in Kermanshah province. For this purpose, daily temperature data of 19 synoptic stations from its establishment until 2018 and extreme temperature indices have been used. Studies have shown that glacial indices (IC) and cold waves (CW) have the highest correlation with other indices. Therefore, the mentioned indicators were considered as representative indicators and the trend and also the pattern of spatial autocorrelation were studied for these indicators. The I - Kendall method was used to examine the trend and the spatial index G * was used for the spatial autocorrelation model. The results showed that the glacial index in the eastern highlands has a maximum frequency for 1 to 6 days and has an increasing trend in the lowlands of the southwest. The cold wave index is also the most frequent in the eastern regions in all continuities and shows an increasing trend in parts of the province. The results of spatial autocorrelation pattern of G * index showed that the positive spatial autocorrelation pattern of cold and ice waves has been observed more in the eastern highlands of the province. The pattern of negative spatial autocorrelation is mostly formed in the western half of the province, i.e., the border areas of Iraq, which indicates the role of the Zagros elevation distribution in the formation of the glacial autocorrelation pattern in the province.