كليدواژه :
اﻧﺮژي ﻫﺎي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮ , ﭘﺎﻧـﻞ ﻫﻤﺠﻤﻌ ﯽ , توليد برق , انرژي هاي ناتجديد پذير
چكيده فارسي :
ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ رﺷﺪ ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪ ﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﺑﺮق از اﻧﻮاع ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ اﻧﺮژي ﻫـ ﺎي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘـﺬ ﯾﺮ در دﻧﯿﺎ )ﺧﻮرﺷﯿﺪي، ﺑﺎدي، ﺑﺮق آﺑﯽ، زﯾﺴﺖ ﺗﻮده، زﻣﯿﻦ ﮔﺮﻣﺎﯾﯽ و زﺑﺎﻟﻪ(، ﺳـﺮﻣ ﺎﯾﻪ ﮔـﺬار ي در اﯾﻦ ﺑﺨﺶ اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﮋﯾﮏ اﻧﺮژي ﺟﻬﺖ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﺑﺮق، ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﯾﺴﺖ ﺑﺎ ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺖ ﮐﺎﻓﯽ از ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪ و ﺻﺮﻓﻪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي و اﺛﺮات زﯾﺴﺖ ﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺻﻮرت ﭘﺬﯾﺮد؛ زﯾﺮا ﮐﺎﻫﺶ در ﺗﻮﻟﯿـ ﺪ و ﻣﺼـﺮف ﺑﺮق و ﯾﺎ اﻧﺘﺨﺎب ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﭘﺮﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪ ﺗﺮ ﺑﺮاي ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﺑﺮق، ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﻋﻮاﻗﺐ ﻧﺎﺧﻮاﺳﺘﻪ اي در ﮐـﺎﻫﺶ رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي داﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. در اﯾﻦ راﺳﺘﺎ، اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮرﺳـ ﯽ راﺑﻄـﻪ ﻋﻠﯿـ ﺖ ﺑـ ﯿﻦ ﺑـﺮق ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪي از اﻧﻮاع ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ اﻧﺮژي ﻫﺎي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮ و رﺷﺪ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ داﺧﻠﯽ ﻣﯽ ﭘﺮدازد. ﺑﺮ اﯾﻦ اﺳﺎس در اﺑﺘﺪا ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﺪل ﭘﺎﻧﻞ ﻫﻤﺠﻤﻌﯽ )FMOLS( و ﻣﺪل ﺗﺼﺤﯿﺢ ﺧﻄﺎي ﭘﺎﻧـﻞ )ECM(، وﺟﻮد راﺑﻄﻪ ﮐﻮﺗﺎه ﻣﺪت و ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪت ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﺑﺮق از اﻧﻮاع اﻧﺮژي ﻫـ ﺎي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘـﺬ ﯾﺮ ﺑـ ﺎ رﺷﺪ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ داﺧﻠﯽ ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﺑﺮق ﺑﻪ وﺳﯿﻠﻪ اﻧﺮژي ﻫﺎي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮ و ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﻧﺎﭘﺬﯾﺮ، ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ و ﻧﯿﺮوي ﮐﺎر داراي اﺛﺮ ﻣﺜﺒـﺖ و ﻣﻌﻨـﺎدار ﺑـﺮ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ داﺧﻠﯽ در ﮐﻮﺗﺎه ﻣﺪت و ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪت ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ، ﺑﻪ ﮔﻮﻧﻪ اي ﮐﻪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﯾﮏ درﺻـﺪ در ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﺑﺮق ﺑﻪ وﺳﯿﻠﻪ اﻧﺮژي ﻫﺎي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﭘﺬﯾﺮ، ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ داﺧﻠـ ﯽ را ﺑـﻪ ﻣ ﯿـ ﺰان 0/066 درﺻـﺪ در ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣـﺪت اﻓـﺰ اﯾﺶ ﻣـ ﯽ دﻫـﺪ درﺣـﺎ ﻟﯽ ﮐــﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﯿـ ﺪ ﺑـﺮق ﺑـﻪ وﺳـ ﯿﻠﻪ اﻧـﺮژ ي ﻫــﺎي ﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪﻧﺎﭘﺬﯾﺮ، ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻧﺎﺧـﺎﻟﺺ داﺧﻠـ ﯽ را ﺑـﻪ ﻣ ﯿـ ﺰان 0/054 درﺻـﺪ در ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣـﺪت اﻓـﺰ اﯾﺶ ﻣﯽ دﻫﺪ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﺮآورد ﻫﺮ ﻣﻨﺒﻊ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽ دﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﺑﺮق از ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ زﯾﺴﺖ ﺗـﻮ ده،
ﺧﻮرﺷﯿﺪي، زﺑﺎﻟﻪ و ﺑﺎدي اﺛﺮ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ و ﻣﻌﻨﺎداري ﺑﺮ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ داﺧﻠﯽ دارد. ﺑـﻪ ﮔﻮﻧـﻪ اي ﮐﻪ ﯾﮏ درﺻﺪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ در ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﺑﺮق از زﯾﺴﺖ ﺗﻮده، ﺧﻮرﺷﯿﺪي، زﺑﺎﻟﻪ، ﺑﺎدي و زﻣﯿﻦ ﮔﺮﻣﺎﯾﯽ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ داﺧﻠـ ﯽ را ﺑـﻪ ﻣ ﯿـ ﺰان 0/011 ،0/033 ،0/027 ،0/010 و 0/016 درﺻﺪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻣﯽ دﻫﻨﺪ. درﺣﺎﻟﯽ ﮐﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﺑﺮق از ﻣﻨﺒـﻊ ﻫﯿـ ﺪرواﻟﮑﺘﺮﯾﮏ )ﺑـﺮق آﺑـ ﯽ( داراي ﮐﺸﺶ 0/011 اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ اﺛﺮ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ داﺧﻠﯽ داﺷﺘﻪ ﻣﻨﺘﻬﯽ اﯾﻦ اﺛـﺮ ﻣﻌﻨـﺎدار ﻧﯿﺴﺖ.
چكيده لاتين :
By the reason of increasing environmental worries and also the limits of fossil fuel sources in the world, including Iran, all the developers and developing countries are changing their technology from fossil fuel sources to renewable energy sources.
But because of the renewable energy sources variety and the way that they are used, to invest in this strategic section, total awareness is needful.
This research is reviewing the relation between producing electricity from types of renewable energy sources and GDP growth rate.
According to this, first, existing of short-run and long-run relation between electricity production from types of renewable energy sources and GDP growth rate has been studied with serial correlation panel model (FMOLS - Fully modified least squares) and panel error correction model (ECM).
Results show that in producing electricity from renewable and non-renewable energy, capital and labor variables have a positive and meaningful effect on GDP in short-run and long-run. For example, increasing 1% of electricity production by renewable energy, can raise GDP to 0/66% in the long - run. While electricity production of non-renewable energy can raise GDP to
Also results in estimating each energy source show that biomass, solar, waste and wind have a positive and meaningful effect on GDP. That means increasing 1% in the amount of biomass (solar, waste, wind and Geothermal) can increase GDP in order of mentioned to 0/01%, 0/72%, 0/33%, 0/11% and 0/61%. While hydroelectric source has elasticity with 0/11 that it has a positive effect on GDP but this is not a meaningful effect.
