تحليل فضايي جرايم سرقت و ارائه راهكارهاي پيشگيري از آن در شهر مشهد

Spatial analysis of theft crimes and providing solutions to prevent it in Mashhad

ﻫﺪف اﺻﻠﯽ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ، ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻧﺤﻮه ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻓﻀﺎﯾﯽ ﺟﺮاﯾﻢ 5 ﮔﺎﻧﻪ ﺳﺮﻗﺖ )ﻗﺎپ زﻧﯽ، ﻣﻨﺰل، ﺧﻮدرو، ﻣﻐﺎزه و ﻣﻮﺗﻮر( ﺷﻬﺮ ﻣﺸﻬﺪ و اراﺋﻪ راﻫﮑﺎرﻫﺎي ﭘﯿﺸﮕﯿﺮي از ﺳﺮﻗﺖ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺑﺮاﯾﻦ اﺳﺎس ﻧﻮع ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻔﯽ-ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯽ اﺳﺖ و داده ﻫﺎي ﻣﮑﺎﻧﯽ ﺟﺮاﯾﻢ 5 ﮔﺎﻧﻪ ﺳﺮﻗﺖ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺗﯽ از ﻣﻌﺎوﻧﺖ ﻣﺤﺘﺮم ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎت اﺳﺘﺎن ﺧﺮاﺳﺎن رﺿﻮي ﺑﺮاي ﺳﺎل 1398 و داده ﻫﺎي ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺘﯽ، ﮐﺎرﺑﺮي اراﺿﯽ و ﻋﺮض ﻣﻌﺎﺑﺮ ﻣﺸﻬﺪ از ﻣﻌﺎوﻧﺖ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺎزي ﺷﻬﺮداري ﻣﺸﻬﺪ ﺟﻤﻊ آوري ﮔﺮدﯾﺪه اﺳﺖ. در ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻓﻀﺎﯾﯽ ﺟﺮاﯾﻢ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺗﯽ ﺑﻪ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ ﻣﺮﮐﺰ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ و ﺑﯿﻀﯽ اﻧﺤﺮاف از ﻣﻌﯿﺎر ﺟﺮاﯾﻢ 5 ﮔﺎﻧﻪ ﺳﺮﻗﺖ، ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ﺗﺤﺖ ﭘﻮﺷﺶ ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﺷﻌﺎع ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮدي ﮐﻼﻧﺘﺮي ﻫﺎ، ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﮕﯽ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺟﺮاﯾﻢ ﺳﺮﻗﺖ در ﮐﺎرﺑﺮي ﻫﺎ و ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﺪن ﻋﺮض ﻣﻌﺎﺑﺮ ﺟﺮاﯾﻢ ﺳﺮﻗﺖ اﺗﻔﺎق اﻓﺘﺎده، اﻗﺪام ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. در ﻧﻬﺎﯾﺖ ﺑﻪ اراﺋﻪ راﻫﮑﺎرﻫﺎي ﭘﯿﺸﮕﯿﺮي از ﺳﺮﻗﺖ ﺑﺮاي ﻧﯿﺮوي اﻧﺘﻈﺎﻣﯽ )ﺣﻮزه ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢ ﮔﯿﺮي ﻧﺎﺟﺎ، ﺣﻮزه ﮐﻼﻧﺘﺮي ﻫﺎ، ﺣﻮزه دﻓﺘﺮ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻘﺎت ﮐﺎرﺑﺮدي اﺳﺘﺎن( اراﺋﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽ دﻫﺪ، ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﯿﺰان وﻗﻮع ﺟﺮم در ﻧﻮاﺣﯽ ﺣﺎﺷﯿﻪ ﻧﺸﯿﻦ و ﻧﻮاﺣﯽ ﻣﺮﮐﺰي ﻣﺘﻤﺎﯾﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺣﺎﺷﯿﻪ ﺷﻬﺮ ﻣﺸﻬﺪ ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ. 57 درﺻﺪ از ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ﻣﺸﻬﺪ در ﺷﻌﺎع ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد اﺳﺘﺎﻧﺪارد ﮐﻼﻧﺘﺮي ﻫﺎي ﻣﺸﻬﺪ ﻗﺮار دارﻧﺪ و 43 درﺻﺪ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ﻧﯿﺰ ﺧﺎرج از ﺷﻌﺎع ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد اﺳﺘﺎﻧﺪارد ﮐﻼﻧﺘﺮي ﻫﺎي ﻣﺸﻬﺪ ﻗﺮار دارﻧﺪ. در راﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺟﺮاﯾﻢ در ﮐﺎرﺑﺮي ﻫﺎي ﺳﻄﺢ ﺷﻬﺮ ﻣﺸﻬﺪ ﺑﺎﯾﺪ ﮔﻔﺖ ﮐﻪ ﮐﺎرﺑﺮي ﻣﺴﮑﻮﻧﯽ، ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﻓﺮاواﻧﯽ وﻗﻮع ﺟﺮاﯾﻢ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺗﯽ را دارا اﺳﺖ، ﺑﻄﻮرﯾﮑﻪ ﺑﯿﺶ از 58 درﺻﺪ ﺳﺮﻗﺖ ﺧﻮدرو، 51 درﺻﺪ ﺳﺮﻗﺖ ﻣﻮﺗﻮر و 51 درﺻﺪ ﺟﺮم ﻗﺎپ زﻧﯽ در ﮐﺎرﺑﺮي ﻣﺴﮑﻮﻧﯽ و ﯾﺎ ﻣﺠﺎورت آن اﺗﻔﺎق اﻓﺘﺎده اﺳﺖ.

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the spatial distribution of the five crimes of theft (snatching, home, car, shop and motorcycle) in Mashhad and to provide solutions to prevent theft. Based on this, the method of the present research is descriptive-analytical and the spatial data of the five crimes of theft of studies were collected from the Deputy of Operations of Khorasan Razavi Province for 2020 and the population, land use and width of Mashhad roads were collected from the Deputy of Urban Planning of Mashhad Municipality. In the spatial analysis of study crimes, the center and the ellipse deviation from the standard of five theft crimes were identified, the population covered based on the functional radius of police stations, the distribution of theft crimes in land uses and the width of the thefts were determined. Is. Finally, robbery prevention solutions have been provided for the police force (NAJA decision area, police station area, provincial applied research office area). The results show that the highest incidence of crime has been in the suburbs and central areas tending to the outskirts of Mashhad. 57% of the population of Mashhad is within the standard operating radius of Mashhad police stations and 43% of the population is outside the standard operating radius of Mashhad police stations. Regarding the distribution of crimes in land uses in Mashhad, it should be said that residential use has the highest frequency of study crimes, so that more than 58% of car theft, 51% of motorcycle theft and 51% of snatching crime in residential use or neighborhood It happened.