بررسي اثرات كاهش يارانه ها در متغيرهاي اقتصادي و تخصيص آن به هزينه هاي عمراني در ايران

Examining the Effects of Subsidies Cut on Economic Variables and Allocating them to Development Expenses in Iran

Improving commodity and services pricing systems and transferring governmentʹs major economic activities to private sector have been introduced as one of the main ways of reforming the governmentʹs financial system and cutting chronic budget deficits in the third socio-economic and cultural development plan of Iran. Nevertheless, since allocating subsidies (as a regular and well-known method for transferring income to low-income groups of the society) is highly important, insufficient knowledge about the executive consequences of this policy or in more understandable terms, lack of a calculated plan for implementing it will result in negative effects on the lives of low-income groups. Moreover, it will have negative socio-political consequences as well. Evaluating the effects of subsidies cut on macro-economic variables in a Keynesian economic model, this paper tries to realistically elaborate on the difficulties that result from putting this policy into action. Finally, the paper proposes a change of governmentʹs expenditure pattern from subsidies allocation for current expenses to allocating them for investment expenses as a supplementary program for pricing system improvement. The purpose is to prevent subsidies negative effects on economic growth, investment and income distribution.