مدل سازي SARIMA براي متوسط درجه حرارت ماهانه

Due to the importance of temperature, its socio- economic effects, and its role in micro - and macro- planning, modelling and simulation of temperature have received much attention in scientific communities. The multiplicative seasonal ARIMA model (SARIMA) by Box, Jenkins and Reinsel (1994) is one of the most useful families of models to describe monthly temperature behavior. In this family of models, the current temperature is related to the past temperature and to some random phenomena. In this paper we have identified a SARIMA(1, 0, 3)(0,_1, 1)12 model as a generating mechanism of average monthly temperature in Jask, based on a time series of 124g length.