برآورد اثرات رفاهي آزادسازي بازار دخانيات ايران

Forcasting welfare effects of tobacoo market liberalization

Findings of a partial equilibrium analysis applied on time-series data of 1340-79 were used to forcast possible welfare effects of tobacoo market liberalization in Iran. Using a forcasting model, the effects were predicted for future. The results show that as a results of market liberalization, government expenditure and imports will decline. This policy increases the social welfare and creates social benefits as well. Despite a relative decrease in consumers welfare, the improvment in producerʹs surplus is so high that can lead to an increase in social welfare. In general, tobacoo market is recommended to be liberalized in next coming years.