شناسايي عوامل و ارزيابي تاثير آنها بر دقت پيش بيني سود و ارتباط آن با نوسانات قيمت سهام شركت هاي پذيرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران

Recognition of Factors and Evaluation Their Influence on The Accuracy of Earning Forecast and Their Relation With The Changes of Stock Prices of The Listed Companies in Tehran Stock Exchange

Different studies done by researchers in other countries indicate that there is a relationship between accuracy of profit prediction and stock price . the purpose of this study is to recognize the factors and evaluate their influence on accuracy of earnings forecast and its relation with changes of stock prices of the certified companies in Tehran Stock Exchange during 1379 to 1383. Using the Regression Method ,the researcher first examines the relation between independent variables (size, age of firm,leverage ratious and Company excellence)and eight dimension model of accuracy of earning forecast then the relation between each of the models of accuracy of earning forecast and changes of stock prices were elaborated .The results of the study show that: In AFE1, model the four independent variable(debt ratioi debt ration to value of stock market average of sale and horizon of earning forecast ) and In MSEl,modeI the two variables debt ration and forecasting horizon (the distance between two forecasting) and In SQFEl model the ration of debt to market price shares average of sale and horizon of forecasting distance to gathering date are influential independent variables in regression model. the results of the analysis show the relation beween the models of accuracy of earning forecast and the modelof changes of first and last price model 1 and there is a significant relation only between AFE1 ,SQFE I, and changes of price of model 1. -the results of the analsis of the relation between the models of accuracy of earning forecost and absolute value model no 2 that no significant relation with changes of price of model no( 2). -the results of the analsis of the relation between the models of accuracy of earning forecost and model no 3 that no significant relation with changes of price of model no( 3). -the results of this study can profit the potential and practical investors. -the results obtained in this study, suggest that investors should Consider Leverage financial ratious, Size, horizon of earning forecast as the most effective factor Accuracy of earnings forecast , when evaluating stock.