جهاني شدن اقتصاد و آثار آن بر عرضه و تقاضاي داخلي و صادرات پسته در ايران: كاربرد روش الگوي خود توزيع با وقفه هاي گسترده

Globalization of the Economy and Its Impacts on Domestic Supply, Demand and Export of Pistachio in Iran: An Application of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model

In this paper, the impact of globalization is studied by analyzing the impact of the Level of International Trade (LIT) Index on export equation and the domestic supply and demand functions for pistachio during the period of 1359-1384. Regarding the domestic supply, results show that the obtained long-term relations are statistically significant in general. However, the changes in none of the included variables in the long-term such as the change in LIT have any significant impact on the domestic supply. In the short- run, the retail price of pistachio and the area under cultivation have no significant effects on the supply of pistachio while the nominal rate of protection demonstrates significant positive impact on the supply. Liberalization in the short-run, contrary to its long-term effect exhibits a significant negative impact on the supply of pistachio. The negative short-run effect of liberalization on domestic supply may have been resulted from the increased exports following the liberalization. In the long-run, GDP and LIT index have positive and negative impacts on domestic demand, respectively. It is also found that an increase in pistachio exports may follow the liberalization.