بررسي تاثير بحران مالي جهاني بر صادرات گروه هاي مختلف كالاهاي صادراتي، با استفاده از منطق فازي

An Evaluation of the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Exports of Various Groups of Exportable Goods Using Fuzzy Logic

Even though Iran was spared major impact from the global financial crisis at the outset, due to the particular situation of its financial sector, the crisis can still impact the economy through the medium of exports of goods. This research studies the impact of the change in the income of Iranʹs main trading partners on exports of various groups of commodities. Given the high versatility of fuzzy logic models in forecasting the behaviour of economic systems, we use such a model in our research. We clarify the export commodities into 8 groups and Iranʹs main trading partners into 11 groups. We use the change of GDP of main trading partners as an input in the model and changes in exports of various commodity groups as outputs. We develop and test the model using data for the period of 1370-1387. The test results had a mean squared error (MSE) of 0.074 and R2 of 99.06%. The results indicate differential response of various commodity groups to changes in GDP of trading partners. Some commodity groups are more adversely affected by the change in of trading partners, while others were partially affected. JEL Classification: C53, C22, C61, Q41