بررسي اثر تغييرات دما بر مصرف گاز طبيعي در ايران

An Investigation of the Impact of Temperature Variation on Natural Gas Consumption in Iran

The rate of growth of natural gas consumption in Iran over the past decade has consistently outpaced the global average rate of increase. It is self evident that temperature variation has an impact on the use of raw materials that supply the required energy for heating and cooling systems, including natural gas. In this research we investigate the impact of changes in temperature on different components of natural gas consumption such as industrial, agricultural, power plant, public, commercial and transportation sectors in Iranʹs provinces in order to develop a predictive model for the country. The paper offers a clear process for identifying an appropriate model to assess the impact of changes in temperature on each of the seven sectors using natural gas. The study considers the use of natural gas in each sector as a dependent variable and average temperature as the independent variable. The values of temperature and use of natural gas in each sector for each of the countryʹs 25 provinces are collected on a monthly basis. Provinces are considered as cross sections in the model, while months provide time series data that are combined together in regression analysis to understand the relationship among these two variables for each of subsector of natural gas demand. In order to enhance the accuracy of the model, the process of selecting and estimating parameters of the model is repeated after eliminating parts of data and the results compared to each other. Finally the correlation between consumption and temperature in each of the seven consumption fields are analyzed. JEL Classification: C23, D10, D12, R21