برآور د اثرات طرح تحول هدفمندسازي سارانه حاملهاي انرژي در سطح قيمت كالاها و خدمات

Estimation of Energy Subsidy Targeting on Commodity Price Index

در اين مطالعه با استفاده از ماتريس حسابداري اجتماعي تاثير اصلاح قيمت يارانه انرژي بر اقتصاد ايران پرداخته شده است. نتايج سناريوهاي مورد بررسي افزايش قيمت حام لهاي انرژي نشان داد كه شاخص قيم تها به ميزان 8/ 36 درصد افزايش پيدا خواهد كرد. همچنين بررسي آثار پرداخت هاي مستقيم دولت بر تقاضاي اقتصاد نشان داد كه اگر دولت به هر نفر در خانوارهاي دهك هاي اول و دوم، ماهانه 300 هزار ريال، به هر نفر خانوارهاي ده كهاي سوم و چهارم 250 هزار ريال و به هر نفر در خانوارهاي ده كهاي پنجم و ششم 200 هزار ريال پرداخت كند، طرف تقاضاي اقتصاد 50 / 1 درصد افزايش خواهد داشت. بررسي شاخص هزينه زندگي خانوارها نشان م يدهد كه پرداختي انتقالي دولت به دهك هاي پايين افزايشهزينه زندگي آ نها را جبران نمي كند و دولت بايد حداقل به ميزان افزايش در شاخص هزينه زندگي، به اين خانوارها پرداخت كند تا بتواند قدرت خريد آن ها را ثابت نگه دارد.

countries embracing globalization and in particular, significantly lowering barriers to trade. This paper employs a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to investigate the welfare impact of tariff liberalization. The Hicksian Equivalent Variation (EV) captures the welfare change. Needed data were obtained from the social accounting matrix of year 2001 in which parameters of model were calibrated accordingly. Three scenarios were examined: import tariff rate reduction on 1) agricultural sector, 2) non-agricultural sectors, and 3) all sectors. All scenarios result in overall economy-wide welfare with respect to the base. The EV increased by nearly 65, 3047, and 3112 billion rials in scenarios 1, 2 and 3 respectively with 100% reductions on import tariffs.JEL Classification: I31 ،R13 ،F13 ،C68. Estimation of Energy Subsidy Targeting on Commodity Price Index Zoroar Permeh, M.A. Behnam Maleki, M.A. Ali –Asghar Banooi, Ph.D. Yaqob Andayesh, M.A. Mehdi Karmi, M.A. Energy / Subsidy / Social Accounting Matrix / Price Index / Families Life Cost The energy subsidy has a remarkable share of GDP (about 10 percent) in Iranian economy, and its reducing affects inflation which its estimation can help policymakers to make the best decision. Thus, this study employs the social accounting matrix in order to study about the inflation effected by increasing the prices of energy. The importance of this method is that we can estimate the exceptional and psychological effects of inflation by regarding the families life cost indicators as much as price indicators in different product sectors. The estimated inflation which is resulted by adjusted prices will be 36.8 percent. Since the amount of energy subsidies and their effects has become a critical problem in Iranian economy, Iranian government, like other countries, must prepare an improved, complete and systematic program regarding financial limitation, a suitable social security system and the improvement of energy consumption function in production and transportation sectors.