راهبردهاي مديريت مخاطره سيل در مناطق روستايي با مدل SWOC-TOPSIS (مطالعه موردي حوضه آبريز قره چاي راميان)

Flood hazard management strategies in rural area by SWOC-TOPSIS technique (Case study: Ghare – chai river basin of Ramyan province)

سیل یكی از انواع مخاطرات طبیعی است كه بسیاری از اجتماعات ازجمله روستاییان حاشیه رودخانه ها هرساله تلفات جبران‌ناپذیری از وقوع آن متحمل می شوند؛ لذا امروزه برای كاهش آسیب های ناشی از وقوع سیلاب، مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی بلندمدت به همراه آینده‌نگری و مشاركت همزمان گروه‌های تصمیم گیر و مردم به‌عنوان ذینفعان اصلی اجتناب‌ناپذیر است. بر این اساس در این مطالعه با تركیب برنامه‌ریزی راهبردی و شیوه مدیریت مشاركتی ازدیدگاه دو گروه روستاییان و مسئولین در حوضه آبریز قره چای رامیان گرگان رود، تلاش شده تا به ارائه راهبرد كانونی مناسب در جهت مدیریت سیل و كاهش اثرات منفی آن در مناطق روستایی پرداخته شود. برای این منظور روش‌شناسی توصیفی- تحلیلی در چارچوب مدل SWOC(SWOT) و تكنیك چند معیاره TOPSIS به كار گرفته شد و نتایج به‌دست‌آمده از محاسبات مدل راهبردی نشان داد كه در هر دو سطح مسئولین و مردم روستایی، جهتگیری عمده در وضع موجود به‌سوی راهبرد محافظه‌كارانه یا بازنگر می باشد كه دارای 10 استراتژی است. همچنین اولویت بندی استراتژی‌ها بر اساس مدل تصمیم گیری چند معیاره تاپسیس نشان داد كه راهبرد «بازنگری در نحوه نظارت بر ساخت‌وسازها و فعالیت‌های اقتصادی حاشیه رودخانه ها و استفاده از بدنه كارشناسی و خبرگان محلی در ارائه مجوز برای فعالیت در حاشیه رودخانه‌ها در مناطق روستایی» با امتیاز 843/0 از اولویت اجرایی بالاتری نسبت به سایر گزینه‌ها در روستاهای منطقه مورد مطالعه برخوردار است.

Introduction Flood is one of the most common natural hazards that are considered as a phenomenon, causing loss of lives and public property and bringing untold misery to the people, especially those in the rural areas. There is also a larger economic impact, as they derail economic activities, thus affecting growth. Over the years, several expert committees have studied the problems caused by floods and suggested measures for their management to the Government. Different measures have been adopted to reduce the flood losses and protect the flood plains. Depending upon the nature of works, flood protection and flood management measures may be broadly classified as under: (a) Engineering / Structural Measures, (b) Non-Structural Measures, (c) Integrated flood management (IFM); as a new approaches for flood management, integrates land and water resource development in a river basin, with a view to maximizing the efficient use of flood plains and minimizing loss of life. A participatory approach which includes a representative range of stakeholders in the decision making process is another key component of IFM. Community activities play an important role as a front line at each stage of flood management that is preparedness for response to and recovery from flood disaster. In addition of people participation, the governmental support systems, with capable cadre is so effective in a successful IFM process. Therefore, in this paper the main goal is strategic flood management in rural area as a vulnerable place in front of disasters and hazard, with emphasize on government and local community participation. Study area Iran’s north and north east area are counted as flood prone areas. Especially, in Golestan province, having the plenty river and the productive lands near the rivers that are attractive place for population, cause to increase the risk of flood happening. Due to the geographical and climatic conditions, this state has a lush and ripe river that emanate from Alborz Mountain as; Atrak River, Gorganrood River and Ghare Suo River. Mean while, Ghar- Chai Basin of Ramyan County, is one of the sub- branches of Gorganrood, which flow in the east of Golestan province. Materials and methods For achieving to paper goal, has used of descriptive- annalistic methodology and SWOC (SWOT) and MCDM technique. A SWOT analysis looks at future possibilities through a systematic approach of introspection into both positive and negative concerns. In this research number of Strengths (S) are 5, Weaknesses (W) 11, Opportunities (O) 6 and Constraints(C) 6 case. Data collection does in 15 rural points in study area. After of recognizing central strategies, used from TOPSIS model for ranking of strategies related subject. Result and discussion After the data gathering and extracting the joint internal and external effective factor in rural flood management from local community and experts, the private strategic matrix based on strengths, weakness, opportunities and treats as effective indexes in final participatory management strategy for flood management was proposed. In the second step, these indicators were scored again by locals and experts and After calculation, the best strategy in the area of strategic focus for achieving participatory management flood was determined based on the average of locals and experts scores. The obtained result show that the scores average of external factor is more than internal factor from both local people and experts. Also, conservative and revising strategies are selected as a focal strategy for action in the context of achieving cooperative management of floods in rural areas. Conclusion Risk management process traditionally has taken place by many approaches and tools aimed at reducing injuries and fatalities caused by environmental hazards on human communities. But in the last few centuries due to the dominance of technology-based development paradigm in planning and management, focusing on structural approach to crisis management was more than the past. But the poor results of structural approaches application, guide planners into a combination of both approaches for crisis management. Based on new paradigm in disaster management, the local community has important role as a supplement for this combinative approach and for achieving to the purposes of disaster management cycle in precaution, preparedness and mitigation of the impacts. Rural communities Participation as key stakeholders in the field of risk management can be implemented alongside of experts and officials activities, and cause to cost reduction and success of projects and crisis management in rural areas.