ارايه‌ي مدلي براي برآورد تاخير كاربران راه با استفاده از شبيه‌سازي نرم‌افزاري

Road User Delay Estimation Model Using Software Simulation

انتخاب راهبرد مناسب در منطقه‌ي عملياتي و ارايه‌ي تسهيلات به مسافران در اين ناحيه، يكي از مباحث مهم در مديريت منطقه‌ي عملياتي است. تاخير ناشي از منطقه‌ي عملياتي يكي از مهم‌ترين پارامترهاي ايجاد اختلال در سيستم حمل‌ونقل است. اين تاخير عمدتاً به دليل ايجاد صف و كاهش سرعت در اين ناحيه رخ مي‌دهد. براي ارايه‌ي مدل تاخير مناسب، ابتدا به كمك نرم‌افزار Aimsun اقدام به شبيه‌سازي ميكروسكوپي منطقه‌ي عملياتي شده و ميزان تاخير حاصل از انسداد مسير در حالات مختلف حجم ورودي به ناحيه و طول منطقه‌ي عملياتي اندازه گيري شده است. سپس با استفاده از نرم‌افزار 21SPSS از مدل غيرخطي چندگانه، كه دقت بالايي دارد، براي تاخير منطقه‌ي‌ عملياتي در راه‌هاي دوخطه‌ي آزادراهي استفاده شده است. در نهايت به برآورد هزينه‌هاي تاخير كاربران راه در آزادراه رشت- قزوين در سال 92 اقدام و به بحث در مورد هزينه‌ي تاخير هر يك از انسدادها در آزادراه پرداخته شده است.

Choosing and providing appropriate strategies and proper amenities for road users passing through work zones is an important topic in work zone management. Authorities have always faced issues in this regard, so, there is a need to create a balance between expediting construction projects and the cost to road users, while also keeping the limitations of available resources in mind. The delay caused by work zone activities is an important parameter that disturbs transportation systems. This delay mainly results from queue generation and subsequent speed reduction in the area. Since, in most cases, there is no likelihood of completely removing this delay, using appropriate delay models, it is feasible to get a realistic understanding of the costs imposed on road users, as well as making the best decision to reduce these costs. In order to develop an appropriate delay model, at first, the work zone was modeled using Aimsun microscopic simulation software. Next, the time delay produced by lane closure for different input volumes and work zone lengths was determined. According to the results, the volume-to-length of the work zone parameter is more effective when it comes to work zone delay. Afterwards, taking advantage of SPSS21 and evaluating various kinds of regression model, a multiple nonlinear model was recognized to better explain the work zone delay in freeway two-lane roads. Finally, the costs of work zone activities on the Rasht-Qazvin freeway in 1392 were calculated and the costs associated with each of lane closures were discussed in detail. Based on these results, as expected, the maximum average delays were a result of sudden and un-planned closures. However, for planned maintenance activities, the average delay was greatly reduced due to the ability to choose an appropriate time for the closure. Great care has been taken to produce a usable model based on historic data, which can be used as a tool for estimation of average delay. This model will enable authorities to choose a suitable time and strategy, in order to reduce road user delays.